Donald Trump: Axios Show, Jun 20, 2026
On the Jun 20, 2026 episode of Donald Trump, Donald Trump said 15 of the 27 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
27 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=277 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 58%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 53%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 51%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 44%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 38%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Terminate / Terminated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | Yes | 34%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 31%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 66%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 46%n=259 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 37%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 36%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 36%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 32%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 32%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 29%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 22%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=404 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-06-20:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-06-20:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP