Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Ballroom Dinner?
Markets
28 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 82%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 74%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 71%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 65%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 64%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 63%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 68%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 61%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 60%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Low IQ | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Donor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Olympic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Operation Summer Heat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel Peace Prize | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=139 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP