Donald Trump: Working Lunch with G7 Leaders, Jun 16, 2026
In remarks on Jun 16, 2026, Donald Trump said 0 of the 24 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
24 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | No | 79%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 77%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 63%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 61%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 59%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 56%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 55%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=269 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 53%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 49%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 48%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=252 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 46%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 41%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 40%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 37%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 36%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 29%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 22%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=396 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-06-16:remarks-working-lunch-g7 · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-06-16:remarks-working-lunch-g7 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP