Donald Trump: Remarks, May 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Indiana University National Football Champions visit?
Markets
31 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Oval Office | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=222 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NIL | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NFL | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heisman | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 29%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 70%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 54%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=246 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | No | 53%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Saban | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 48%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Rich | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Executive Order | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 41%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 38%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald / McDonald's | No | 33%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Kickoff | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 32%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Draft / Drafted | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 25%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=361 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP