Donald Trump: Interview, May 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump?
Markets
30 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 72%n=153 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 63%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 61%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 60%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 60%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 56%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 54%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 50%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Pool | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | 41%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 36%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 34%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 67%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 61%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 56%n=182 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 52%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=242 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 41%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Dust | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 29%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 27%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=382 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP