Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa, Oct 22, 2026
At the rally on Oct 22, 2026, Donald Trump said 31 of the 55 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 53 of 55 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
55 words · 31 settled yes · our count agreed on 53 of 55- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax 33+ times | Yes | 34 | 36 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 33 | 33 | ✓ | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 5+ times | Yes | 19 | 20 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 55%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 8 | 9 | ✓ | 70%n=249 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 7+ times | Yes | 8 | 9 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Estate Tax / Death Tax | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ilhan / Omar | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 51%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| France / Paris | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 61%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 60%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – | |
| Hottest | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 39%n=345 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 89%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 72%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 61%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 48%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| E15 | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Ethanol | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 49%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Right to Repair / Right to Fix | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 39%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | No | 10 | 13 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 2 | 2 | ✗ | 25%n=272 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 13%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 78%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Corn | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Meat / Steak | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Veteran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 8%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 7%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=526 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 13:08 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · RSBN (YouTube auto-captions) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
16 matches for “Hell”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…know, I shouldn't say I shouldn't break, should I? Yeah. What the hell difference? Which I won all three times, receiving more votes than any…
saying this for the first time? How the hell do you have this guy running? Why can't I have somebody like that to run against…
…news all the time every two minutes. I don't know where the hell they get so much breaking news, but one of them had to…
…No, they don't talk about it. They don't talk about it. I took the damn test. Where is that doctor? Where the hell is that
…of crazy things. That's why they're great at cheating. They cheat like hell. And if they didn't cheat, they could never win because their policy…
Where the listed words were said
…be. It's our capital. It should be right. I signed the largest tax cuts in American history with the great big beautiful bill including no…
…American history, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our borders from all over the world. It…
…to use it. He's great. He's a great guy, too. That the Democrat party has just conceded her seat. that Elhan Nur say Elmei, her…
…have it fully done. They'll look back and they'll say, "Who the hell lifted all this weight?" But you know, with with uh the way…
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…with that record. Turk voted to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents and with no parental consent. I didn't even…
…a commitment tonight that Ashley Ashley is not in favor of the transgender mutilization of your children. Can we get that commitment? You swear. I…
…I said we have to go and stop them from having a nuclear weapon. If they had a nuclear weapon, you wouldn't be very comfortable.…
…one of the things I'm most happy about. We eliminated the unfair estate tax or the death tax, right? It's the best thing. And I…
…moderate. So he can go vote with extremists like Abdul Muhammad Aliad. They can be together. and James Telerico and oh no Elon Omar B.
…actually. And the fact is, you know, we have more oil than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined. If and if you go back eight or…
This can't happen to our country. Take a look at France. How are they doing? Not too good. But Ashley's going to be going to…
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