Will Donald Trump say “Ethanol”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ethanol” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 29, 2026 (33%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ethanol
- Probability
- 47% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…campaigned with a radical left group that wants to kill absolutely kill ethanol. You know, I'm the one that saved ethanol. I don't know if…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ethanol |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ethanol | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Ethanol | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Ethanol | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ethanol |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Ethanol | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ethanol”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ethanol” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 29, 2026 (33%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ethanol” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ethanol’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ethanol (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ethanol · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP