Will Donald Trump say “Somalia / Somali / Somalian”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Somalia / Somali / Somalian” at 19 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (49%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=39, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.

57%from settlement history only · n=39counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=somali%20%2F%20somalia%20%2F%20somalian

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Somalia / Somali / Somalian

Probability
57% · n=39
Settled
19/39 (49%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker13:45In transcript

…a long time. You know, she comes from a non country basically. Somalia has no government, has no nothing, has nothing. All they do is…

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker36:38In transcript

…was sick. Nick used his popular YouTube channel to reveal that the Somali community -- the lovely community from Somalia, lovely country -- in Minneapolis,…

Stephen Millerother1:01:24In transcript

…pillaging us, plundering us. People like Nick exposed, they came here from Somalia, been living here for a year or two, they say, I'm going…

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 40 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes1
Oct 20, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes2
Apr 27, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianPolymarketNo–
Apr 23, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianPolymarketNo–
Mar 16, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Mar 1, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 28, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Feb 22, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 15, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 8, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 7, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Feb 3, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Feb 2, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Jan 30, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jan 29, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianPolymarketNo–
Jan 28, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianPolymarketNo–
Jan 28, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 28, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 28, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 25, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes10
Jan 24, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 21, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 21, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 18, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Jan 16, 2026Somalia / Somalian / SomaliKalshiNo–
Jan 15, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 14, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jan 14, 2026Somalia / Somalian / SomaliKalshiNo–
Jan 13, 2026Somalia / Somalian / SomaliPolymarketNo–
Jan 12, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Jan 10, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jan 9, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 7, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Jan 5, 2026Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 29, 2025Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 22, 2025Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 15, 2025Somalia / Somali / SomalianKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 5, 2025Somalia / Somalian / SomaliKalshiNo–
Dec 2, 2025Somalia / Somalian / SomaliPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Somalia / Somali / Somalian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Somalia / Somali / Somalian” at 19 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (49%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Somalia / Somali / Somalian” next time?
57%, from settlement history (n=39). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Somalia / Somali / Somalian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/somali-or-somalia-or-somalian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=somali%20%2F%20somalia%20%2F%20somalian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP