Will Donald Trump say “France / Paris”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “France / Paris” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
France / Paris
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
This can't happen to our country. Take a look at France. How are they doing? Not too good. But Ashley's going to be going to…
…don't want you going to Japan. We don't want you going to France. Would anyone like to go to France? Boy, they better straighten that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | France / Paris |  Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | France / Paris | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “France / Paris”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “France / Paris” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “France / Paris” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘France / Paris’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/france-or-paris (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=france%20%2F%20paris · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP