Will Donald Trump say “Steel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Steel” at 13 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (72%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Steel
- Probability
- 66% · n=18
- Settled
- 13/18 (72%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted.
…have a very good memory to the best I just approved a steel plant for billions of dollars in a section of Iowa that can…
…forward to Yeah. you're having I don't think of you as a steel plant place. I think of you with a farm and the John…
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Steel |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Steel |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Steel | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Steel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Steel | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Steel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Steel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Steel” at 13 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (72%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Steel” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Steel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/steel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=steel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP