Will Donald Trump say “Estate Tax / Death Tax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Estate Tax / Death Tax” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Estate Tax / Death Tax
- Probability
- 69% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted.
…one of the things I'm most happy about. We eliminated the unfair estate tax or the death tax, right? It's the best thing. And I…
…wanted to grow grow old and they'll be assessing it and the estate tax is a very high tax 40% 50%. It's a massive tax.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Estate Tax / Death Tax |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Estate Tax / Death Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Estate Tax / Death Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Death Tax / Estate Tax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Estate Tax / Death Tax”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Estate Tax / Death Tax” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Estate Tax / Death Tax” next time?
- 69%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Estate Tax / Death Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/death-tax-or-estate-tax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=death%20tax%20%2F%20estate%20tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP