Will Donald Trump say “Border” 15+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 15+ times at 15 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (83%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (15+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Border 15+ times
- Probability
- 59% · n=18
- Settled
- 15/18 (83%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone.…
…in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like…
…mean, at the War Department, we've done the same on the southwest border with our interagency partners on law enforcement in cities all across America…
…it's a big reason. Take away your second amendment. Wants to open your borders. Wants to do so many things that you're just not going
…just such a big part of the country is corrupt. We need borders, we need good elections, we need great journalists and we have to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Border 15+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 23 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Border 15+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Border 15+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 15+ times at 15 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (83%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Border 15+ times” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Border 15+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border-15plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border%20%2815%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP