Will Donald Trump say “Venezuela / Venezuelan”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela / Venezuelan” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Venezuela / Venezuelan
- Probability
- 64% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
We captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting trial and he's one of the ones that…
…that we're doing. I didn't promise. I didn't promise I didn't promise Venezuela. I didn't talk about we took over Venezuela. We have more oil…
…it is almost like a release. It's good. You know, we took Venezuela quickly. We're doing we're doing very well. You have no idea how…
…I think we're captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in…
…world. And we captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who's now awaiting trial for lots of bad things. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Venezuela / Venezuelan |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Venezuela / Venezuelan |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Venezuela / Venezuelan | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Venezuela / Venezuelan | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Venezuela / Venezuelan | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Venezuela / Venezuelan”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela / Venezuelan” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Venezuela / Venezuelan” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Venezuela / Venezuelan’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/venezuela-or-venezuelan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=venezuela%20%2F%20venezuelan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP