Will Donald Trump say “1776”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “1776” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
1776
- Probability
- 64% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…because you remember just recently I gave all members of our military $1776 everyone. And they all got it. It's all done. Got it one…
…remember, just recently I gave all members of the United States military $1,776, right? And everyone said, "Oh, it can't be done. You can't do…
…I will do it, I gave all members of our great military $1,776 and everyone said it can't be done. They all said it can't…
…George Washington ordered the Declaration of Independence read to his troops in 1776 as they listen to those immortal words for the first time, the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “1776”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “1776” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “1776” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘1776’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/1776 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=1776 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP