Will Donald Trump say “Refinery”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Refinery” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 7, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 56¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Refinery
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the thing we need is and we're building them rapidly is re refineries. We have so much oil you wouldn't believe even all of that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Refinery |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Refinery”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Refinery” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Refinery” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Refinery’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/refinery (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=refinery · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP