Will Donald Trump say “Cartel”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cartel” at 7 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cartel
- Probability
- 57% · n=16
- Settled
- 7/16 (44%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don't understand it. We conducted large numbers of military strikes to smash the drug cartels and we brought the flow of deadly drugs coming
We conducted large numbers of military strikes to smash the drug cartels. And we brought the flow of deadly drugs coming in by ocean and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cartel |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Cartel |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 7, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Cartel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Cartel | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cartel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Cartel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cartel”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cartel” at 7 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cartel” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cartel’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cartel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cartel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP