Tesla roadster event, Oct 15, 2026
At the keynote on Oct 15, 2026, Tesla said 6 of the 19 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 19 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
19 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 19- Kalshi: company speakers
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thruster / Rocket | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fly / Flying | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| James Bond | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wing / Spoiler | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grok | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Full Self-Driving / FSD | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2027 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 620 Mile | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carbon Fiber / Composite | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cold Gas | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FAA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fan Car / Ducted Fan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hover / Hovering | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| One-Piece Seat / Monolithic Seat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Street Legal | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lidar | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Merge / Merger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Tesla (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
Where the listed words were said
…pre-show Raptor static fire over there. We are here at SpaceX's uh rocket test and development center in McGregor, Texas. It's 4,000 acres. Thank you…
had Roadster and SpaceX together, we put Elons's into into orbit.
Flying cars are real.
Uh we we we entered production uh in 2028.
…and SpaceX engineers working closely together to make something that you haven't seen in any movie. Uh that uh better than any James Bond car,
Yeah. So if the the rear wing h has a a variable pitch, so it can adjust the downforce dynamically and it will do it…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-10-15:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-10-15:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP