Ken Griffin
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 27 word markets on Ken Griffin’s appearances since 2025, on 24 different words.
History Wall
1–24 of 24, most settled first| Word | Nov 7 ’25keynote | Apr 14 ’26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 1 time: Inflation, Nov 7 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 12 times: Inflation, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 73%n=2 from settlement history |
| Gold | 0 times: Gold, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Gold, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 12%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tariff | 0 times: Tariff, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Tariff, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 12%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 3 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Europe / European | Not listed: Europe / European, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 4 times: Europe / European, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 9 times: Iran, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 1 time: Oil, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump / President | Not listed: Trump / President, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 11 times: Trump / President, Apr 14 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| American Dream | Not listed: American Dream, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: American Dream, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Autonomous | 0 times: Autonomous, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Autonomous, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | 0 times: Bitcoin / Crypto, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Bitcoin / Crypto, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bubble | 0 times: Bubble, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Bubble, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| CapEx | 0 times: CapEx, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: CapEx, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | 0 times: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: ChatGPT / OpenAI, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | 0 times: China, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: China, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Debt | 0 times: Debt, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Debt, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon / Musk | 0 times: Elon / Musk, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Innovation | 0 times: Innovation, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Innovation, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Miami | Not listed: Miami, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Miami, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Real Estate | 0 times: Real Estate, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Real Estate, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Recession | 0 times: Recession, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Recession, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regulation / Regulatory | 0 times: Regulation / Regulatory, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Regulation / Regulatory, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Not listed: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Nov 7 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Apr 14 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 27 of 27 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Ken Griffin say during Semafor World Economy 2026? | Captions · machine-attributed | 13 | 6 yes · 7 no | 12/12 (100%) |
| Nov 7, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Ken Griffin say during the America Business Forum? | Captions · machine-attributed | 15 | 1 yes · 14 no | 15/15 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Ken Griffin: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/ken-griffin (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/ken-griffin · words: /api/v1/history?entity=ken-griffin · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP