Elon Musk
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 309 word markets on Elon Musk’s appearances since 2025, on 84 different words; most reliably said: “Tesla” (21 of 22). Next: Posts window, by Oct 25, 2026 (11 words listed).
Next: Posts window ·
11 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket| Word | Aug 16posts window | Aug 23posts window | Aug 30posts window | Sep 6posts window | Sep 13posts window | Sep 20posts window | Sep 27posts window | Oct 4posts window | Oct 11posts window | Oct 18latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Tesla, Aug 16 posts window: settled yes · our count of 11 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Aug 23 posts window: settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Aug 30 posts window: settled yes · our count of 9 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Sep 6 posts window: settled yes · our count of 38 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Sep 13 posts window: settled yes · our count of 37 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Sep 20 posts window: settled yes · our count of 22 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Sep 27 posts window: settled yes · our count of 31 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Oct 4 posts window: settled yes · our count of 22 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Oct 11 posts window: settled yes · our count of 39 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tesla, Oct 18 posts window: settled yes · our count of 50 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 10/10100% | 21/2295% | 94%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | Not listed: SpaceX, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: SpaceX, Oct 11 posts window | SpaceX, Oct 18 posts window: settled yes · our count of 69 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 1/1100% | 3/560% | 76%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Not listed: Genius, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Genius, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canyonnew | Not listed: Canyon, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Canyon, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 49¢ Polymarket |
| Evel Knievelnew | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Evel Knievel, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 37¢ Polymarket |
| Flying Carnew | Not listed: Flying Car, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Flying Car, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 49¢ Polymarket |
| James Bondnew | Not listed: James Bond, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: James Bond, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 37¢ Polymarket |
| Legalnew | Not listed: Legal, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Legal, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 50¢ Polymarket |
| Roadsternew | Not listed: Roadster, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Roadster, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 40¢ Polymarket |
| Rocketnew | Not listed: Rocket, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Rocket, Oct 18 posts window | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 50¢ Polymarket |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrencynever said | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 18 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 0/100% | 0/110% | 3%n=10 from settlement history | 46¢ Polymarket |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 86, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Aug 16posts window | Aug 23posts window | Aug 30posts window | Sep 6posts window | Sep 13posts window | Sep 20posts window | Sep 27posts window | Oct 4posts window | Oct 11posts window | Oct 18latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Trump, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 7 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 3 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 10 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Trump, Oct 18 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 0/100% | 1/195% | 9%n=19 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iraniannever said | Iran / Iranian, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Iran / Iranian, Oct 18 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 0/100% | 0/170% | 2%n=17 from settlement history |
| Texas | Texas, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Aug 23 posts window: settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Aug 30 posts window: settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Sep 20 posts window: settled yes · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Sep 27 posts window: settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Texas, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Texas, Oct 18 posts window | 4/944% | 8/1650% | 38%n=16 from settlement history |
| Video game / Videogame | Video game / Videogame, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Aug 23 posts window: settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Sep 20 posts window: settled yes · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Video game / Videogame, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Video game / Videogame, Oct 18 posts window | 2/922% | 6/1638% | 22%n=16 from settlement history |
| ChatGPTnever said | ChatGPT, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | ChatGPT, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: ChatGPT, Oct 18 posts window | 0/90% | 0/160% | 2%n=16 from settlement history |
| OpenAI / Altman | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: OpenAI / Altman, Oct 18 posts window | – | 2/1118% | 22%n=11 from settlement history |
| Sam / Altman | Sam / Altman, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Aug 30 posts window: settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Sam / Altman, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Sam / Altman, Oct 18 posts window | 1/911% | 1/1010% | 8%n=10 from settlement history |
| Deport / Deportednever said | Deport / Deported, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Deport / Deported, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Deport / Deported, Oct 18 posts window | 0/90% | 0/100% | 2%n=10 from settlement history |
| Tweaknever said | Tweak, Aug 16 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Tweak, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Tweak, Oct 18 posts window | 0/90% | 0/100% | 2%n=10 from settlement history |
| China | Not listed: China, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: China, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: China, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: China, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: China, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: China, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: China, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: China, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: China, Oct 11 posts window | China, Oct 18 posts window: settled yes · our count of 6 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 1/1100% | 3/933% | 46%n=9 from settlement history |
| Border / Borders | Not listed: Border / Borders, Aug 16 posts window | Border / Borders, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Sep 20 posts window: settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Sep 27 posts window: settled yes · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 3 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Border / Borders, Oct 18 posts window: settled no · our count of 5 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 2/922% | 2/922% | 23%n=9 from settlement history |
| Neuralink | Not listed: Neuralink, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Neuralink, Oct 18 posts window | – | 3/838% | 34%n=8 from settlement history |
| Crypto / Bitcoinnever said | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/80% | 4%n=8 from settlement history |
| Mexiconever said | Not listed: Mexico, Aug 16 posts window | Mexico, Aug 23 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Aug 30 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Sep 6 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Sep 13 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Sep 20 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Sep 27 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Oct 4 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Mexico, Oct 11 posts window: settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded | Not listed: Mexico, Oct 18 posts window | 0/80% | 0/80% | 3%n=8 from settlement history |
| President | Not listed: President, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: President, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: President, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: President, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: President, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: President, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: President, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: President, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: President, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: President, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/714% | 19%n=7 from settlement history |
| IPOnever said | Not listed: IPO, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: IPO, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/70% | 4%n=7 from settlement history |
| Claude | Not listed: Claude, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Claude, Oct 18 posts window | – | 3/650% | 49%n=6 from settlement history |
| Alwaysevery time | Not listed: Always, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Always, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Always, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Always, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Always, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Always, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Always, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Always, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Always, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Always, Oct 18 posts window | – | 5/5100% | 88%n=5 from settlement history |
| Never | Not listed: Never, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Never, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Never, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Never, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Never, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Never, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Never, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Never, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Never, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Never, Oct 18 posts window | – | 3/560% | 57%n=5 from settlement history |
| Footballnever said | Not listed: Football, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Football, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Football, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Football, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Football, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Football, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Football, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Football, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Football, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Football, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/50% | 4%n=5 from settlement history |
| Soccernever said | Not listed: Soccer, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Soccer, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/50% | 4%n=5 from settlement history |
| Starlink | Not listed: Starlink, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 11 posts window | Starlink, Oct 18 posts window: settled yes · our count of 86 includes reposts, so it is not graded | 1/1100% | 2/450% | 34%n=4 from settlement history |
| Grok | Not listed: Grok, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Grok, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/333% | 43%n=3 from settlement history |
| Mars | Not listed: Mars, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Mars, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/30% | 24%n=3 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Optimus | Not listed: Optimus, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Optimus, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/250% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| Knicks | Not listed: Knicks, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Knicks, Oct 18 posts window | – | 0/20% | 8%n=2 from settlement history |
| A.I / Artificial Intelligence5+ times | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Anthropic / OpenAI, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cursor | Not listed: Cursor, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Cursor, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Robotaxi / Cybercab | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Robotaxi / Cybercab, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| DOGE7+ times | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: DOGE 7+ times, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Energy | Not listed: Energy, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Energy, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: FSD / Full Self Driving, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Grok5+ times | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Grok 5+ times, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Humanoid | Not listed: Humanoid, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Humanoid, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nvidia | Not listed: Nvidia, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Nvidia, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Order of Magnitude | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: Order of Magnitude, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| PayPal | Not listed: PayPal, Aug 16 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Aug 23 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Aug 30 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Sep 6 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Sep 13 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Sep 20 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Sep 27 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Oct 4 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Oct 11 posts window | Not listed: PayPal, Oct 18 posts window | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 11 of 12 settled words resolved (91.7%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (October 12 - October 18) | Official transcript | 9 | 4 yes · 5 no | – |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11) | Official transcript | 12 | 1 yes · 11 no | – |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (September 28 - October 4) | Official transcript | 12 | 1 yes · 11 no | – |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (September 21 - September 27) | Official transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (September 14 - September 20) | Official transcript | 12 | 4 yes · 8 no | – |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (September 7 - September 13) | Official transcript | 12 | 1 yes · 11 no | – |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (August 31 - September 6) | Official transcript | 12 | 1 yes · 11 no | – |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30) | Official transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (August 17 - August 23) | Official transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (August 10 - August 16) | Official transcript | 10 | 1 yes · 9 no | – |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Elon post this week? (August 3 - August 9) | Official transcript | 13 | 3 yes · 10 no | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Earnings callWhat will Elon say during SpaceX Earnings Call? | no transcript | 18 | 10 yes · 8 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Elon Musk: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/elon-musk · words: /api/v1/history?entity=elon-musk · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP