Will Vlad Tenev say “Kalshi”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Kalshi” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (20%), most recently on Nov 7, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 8% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 keynotes, 1 episode; Nov 6, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 12¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Kalshi
- Probability
- 8% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Kalshi”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Kalshi” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (20%), most recently on Nov 7, 2025.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Kalshi” next time?
- 8%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Kalshi’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/kalshi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=kalshi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP