Elon Musk: World Economic Forum, Jan 23, 2026
At the keynote on Jan 23, 2026, Elon Musk said 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 11 | 12 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starlink | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Grok / xAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · World Economic Forum (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
Where the listed words were said
…be producing more chips than we can turn on. Ex- except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100…
Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently [clears throat] some of the insurance…
…is As it is in China. Well, unfortunately in in the US the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high [clears throat]
…quickly. I think uh we we we do have some the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Um we expect it it…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2026-01-23:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2026-01-23:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP