Vlad Tenev
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 82 word markets on Vlad Tenev’s appearances since 2025, on 52 different words. Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 (16 words listed).
Next: Keynote ·
16 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Dec 17 ’25keynote | Mar 5 ’26keynote | Sep 29latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Option | Not listed: Option, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Option, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 3 times: Option, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 2/2100% | 75%n=2 from settlement history | 34¢ Kalshi |
| Sport | 8 times: Sport, Dec 17 ’25 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Sport, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Sport, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 3/3100% | 63%n=2 from settlement history | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Bank / Banking | Not listed: Bank / Banking, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 1 time: Bank / Banking, Mar 5 ’26 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Bank / Banking, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Perp / Perpetual | Not listed: Perp / Perpetual, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Perp / Perpetual, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 3 times: Perp / Perpetual, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | 53%n=2 from settlement history | 48¢ Kalshi |
| Social | Not listed: Social, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 1 time: Social, Mar 5 ’26 keynote, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | 8 times: Social, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said | 2/2100% | 1/250% | 53%n=2 from settlement history | 50¢ Kalshi |
| Retire / Retirement | Not listed: Retire / Retirement, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Retire / Retirement, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Retire / Retirement, Sep 29 keynote | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 45¢ Kalshi |
| Agent / Agenticnew | Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Sep 29 keynote | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 44¢ Kalshi |
| Prediction Market | Not listed: Prediction Market, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Prediction Market, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Prediction Market, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 2/367% | 23%n=2 from settlement history | 66¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said (our count 4 · the market settled no) | 1/250% | 1/333% | 13%n=3 from settlement history | 78¢ Kalshi |
| Active Trader / Active Trading | Not listed: Active Trader / Active Trading, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Active Trader / Active Trading, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 0 times: Active Trader / Active Trading, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 62¢ Kalshi |
| Gold3+ times | Not listed: Gold (3+ times), Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Gold (3+ times), Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 0 times: Gold (3+ times), Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 11¢ Kalshi |
| Credit Card | Not listed: Credit Card, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Credit Card, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 0 times: Credit Card, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/20% | 8%n=2 from settlement history | 34¢ Kalshi |
| Kalshi | 0 times: Kalshi, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Kalshi, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 0 times: Kalshi, Sep 29 keynote | 0/30% | 1/520% | 8%n=4 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Tokenized / Tokenization | 0 times: Tokenized / Tokenization, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Tokenized / Tokenization, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 1 time: Tokenized / Tokenization, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | 1/333% | 0/30% | 6%n=3 from settlement history | 69¢ Kalshi |
| Bitcoinnever said | 0 times: Bitcoin, Dec 17 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Bitcoin, Mar 5 ’26 keynote | 1 time: Bitcoin, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | 1/333% | 0/50% | 6%n=4 from settlement history | 20¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Every word
1–38 of 38, most settled first| Word | Sep 9 ’25keynote | Nov 7episode | Dec 17keynote | Feb 12 ’26episode | Mar 5keynote | Sep 29latest | Last 6 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blockchainnever said | Settled no: Blockchain, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Blockchain, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: Blockchain, Dec 17 keynote | Settled no: Blockchain, Feb 12 ’26 episode | 0 times: Blockchain, Mar 5 keynote | 0 times: Blockchain, Sep 29 keynote | 0/60% | 0/60% | 5%n=5 from settlement history |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 6 times: Election, Nov 7 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Election, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Election, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Election, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Election, Sep 29 keynote | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto | Not listed: Crypto, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Crypto, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Crypto, Dec 17 keynote | Settled yes: Crypto, Feb 12 ’26 episode | 0 times: Crypto, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Crypto, Sep 29 keynote | 1/250% | 1/250% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| Retirement | Not listed: Retirement, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Retirement, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: Retirement, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Retirement, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Retirement, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Retirement, Sep 29 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| SIG / Susquehanna | Not listed: SIG / Susquehanna, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: SIG / Susquehanna, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: SIG / Susquehanna, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: SIG / Susquehanna, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: SIG / Susquehanna, Mar 5 keynote | 0 times: SIG / Susquehanna, Sep 29 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 8%n=2 from settlement history |
| Acquisition / Acquired | Not listed: Acquisition / Acquired, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Acquisition / Acquired, Nov 7 episode | 1 time: Acquisition / Acquired, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Acquisition / Acquired, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Acquisition / Acquired, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Acquisition / Acquired, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Settled yes: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cortex | Settled yes: Cortex, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Cortex, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Cortex, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Cortex, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Cortex, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Cortex, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Point | Settled yes: Point, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Point, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Point, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Point, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Point, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Point, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Private | Not listed: Private, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Private, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Private, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Private, Feb 12 ’26 episode | 1 time: Private, Mar 5 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Private, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tokenization | Not listed: Tokenization, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Tokenization, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Tokenization, Dec 17 keynote | Settled yes: Tokenization, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Tokenization, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Tokenization, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Token / Tokenization | Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 1 time: Token / Tokenization, Nov 7 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Token / Tokenization, Sep 29 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Citadel | Settled no: Citadel, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Citadel, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Citadel, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Citadel, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Citadel, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Citadel, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy / Economic | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: Economy / Economic, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy | Not listed: Economy, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Economy, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Economy, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Economy, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Economy, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Economy, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Ether / Ethereum | Settled no: Ether / Ethereum, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Ether / Ethereum, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Ether / Ethereum, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Ether / Ethereum, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Ether / Ethereum, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Ether / Ethereum, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Event Contract | Not listed: Event Contract, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Event Contract, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Event Contract, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Event Contract, Feb 12 ’26 episode | 0 times: Event Contract, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Event Contract, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Football | Not listed: Football, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Football, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Football, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Football, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Football, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Football, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| NFL / Football | Not listed: NFL / Football, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: NFL / Football, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: NFL / Football, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Mar 5 keynote | 0 times: NFL / Football, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Futures | Not listed: Futures, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Futures, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Futures, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Futures, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Futures, Mar 5 keynote | 3 times: Futures, Sep 29 keynote, counts as said (our count 3 · the market settled no) | 1/1100% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gold | Not listed: Gold, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Gold, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: Gold, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Gold, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Gold, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Gold, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation | Settled no: Inflation, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Innovation / Innovate | Not listed: Innovation / Innovate, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Innovation / Innovate, Nov 7 episode | 0 times: Innovation / Innovate, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Innovation / Innovate, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Innovation / Innovate, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Innovation / Innovate, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Lawsuit | Settled no: Lawsuit, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Lawsuit, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Lawsuit, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Lawsuit, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Lawsuit, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Lawsuit, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Meme stock | Settled no: Meme stock, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Meme stock, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Meme stock, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Meme stock, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Meme stock, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Meme stock, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Order flow | Settled no: Order flow, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Order flow, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Order flow, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Order flow, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Order flow, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Order flow, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Partnership | Settled no: Partnership, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Partnership, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Partnership, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Partnership, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Partnership, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Partnership, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Perpetual future | Settled no: Perpetual future, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Perpetual future, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Perpetual future, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Perpetual future, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Perpetual future, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Perpetual future, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| SpaceX | Not listed: SpaceX, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: SpaceX, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: SpaceX, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: SpaceX, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: SpaceX, Mar 5 keynote | 0 times: SpaceX, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Staking | Settled no: Staking, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Staking, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Staking, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Staking, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Staking, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Staking, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stock Market | Not listed: Stock Market, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Stock Market, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Stock Market, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Stock Market, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Stock Market, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Stock Market, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Subscriber | Settled no: Subscriber, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Subscriber, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Subscriber, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Subscriber, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Subscriber, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Subscriber, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Settled no: Tariff, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Tariff, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Tariff, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Token | Settled no: Token, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Token, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Token, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Token, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Token, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Token, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trillion | Not listed: Trillion, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Trillion, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Trillion, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Trillion, Feb 12 ’26 episode | 0 times: Trillion, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Trillion, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Trump, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Trump, Dec 17 keynote | Settled no: Trump, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Trump, Mar 5 keynote | Not listed: Trump, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ventures Fund | Not listed: Ventures Fund, Sep 9 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Ventures Fund, Nov 7 episode | Not listed: Ventures Fund, Dec 17 keynote | Not listed: Ventures Fund, Feb 12 ’26 episode | Not listed: Ventures Fund, Mar 5 keynote | 0 times: Ventures Fund, Sep 29 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 6Our transcript counts matched how 37 of 42 settled words resolved (88.1%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Vlad Tenev say during his HOOD Summit '26 Keynote? | Captions · machine-attributed | 18 | 3 yes · 15 no | 13/17 (76%) |
| Mar 5, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Vlad Tenev say during Robinhood's Keynote Event? | Captions · machine-attributed | 13 | 2 yes · 11 no | 12/13 (92%) |
| Feb 12, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Vlad Tenev say on the TBPN Podcast | no transcript | 10 | 6 yes · 4 no | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Vlad Tenev say during the Robinhood keynote? | Captions · machine-attributed | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | 12/12 (100%) |
| Nov 7, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Vlad Tenev say during the TBPN Podcast? | Speaker-labelled captions | 12 | 5 yes · 7 no | 11/12 (92%) |
| Sep 9, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Vlad Tenev say during the HOOD Summit '25 Keynote? | no transcript | 18 | 4 yes · 14 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/vlad-tenev · words: /api/v1/history?entity=vlad-tenev · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP