OpenAI

Name: OpenAI: mention market word history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Business · Company keynotesCompanyHistory onlyUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 23:51 UTC

As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 26 word markets on OpenAI’s appearances since 2025, on 25 different words.

History Wall

1–25 of 25, most settled first

OpenAI: every word with settled markets, most settled first
Word	Aug 7 ’25episode	Apr 21 ’26latest	Last 2	Settled	Probability
Trump	Settled no: Trump, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Trump, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/20%	0/20%	16%n=2 from settlement history
Sam / Altman	Settled yes: Sam / Altman, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Sam / Altman, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Codex	Not listed: Codex, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled yes: Codex, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Code / Coding	Not listed: Code / Coding, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled yes: Code / Coding, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
DALL-E	Not listed: DALL-E, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled yes: DALL-E, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Deep Research	Settled yes: Deep Research, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Deep Research, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
GPT15+ times	Settled yes: GPT 15+, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: GPT 15+, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Multimodal	Settled yes: Multimodal, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Multimodal, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
OpenAI5+ times	Settled yes: OpenAI 5+, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: OpenAI 5+, Apr 21 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Agent / Agentic	Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Agent / Agentic, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
AGI	Not listed: AGI, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: AGI, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Claude / Anthropic	Not listed: Claude / Anthropic, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Claude / Anthropic, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Bitcoin	Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Browser	Settled no: Browser, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Browser, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
China	Settled no: China, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: China, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Elon / Musk	Not listed: Elon / Musk, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Elon / Musk, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Gemini	Settled no: Gemini, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Gemini, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
IPO / Public	Not listed: IPO / Public, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: IPO / Public, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
It's a good model	Settled no: It's a good model, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: It's a good model, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
LLM	Not listed: LLM, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: LLM, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Open Source	Settled no: Open Source, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Open Source, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Roadmap	Settled no: Roadmap, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Not listed: Roadmap, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Safe / Safer / Safety	Not listed: Safe / Safer / Safety, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Safe / Safer / Safety, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Sora	Not listed: Sora, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Sora, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Spud	Not listed: Spud, Aug 7 ’25 episode	Settled no: Spud, Apr 21 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
N: settled no
not listed
probability next time, with n
Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N: of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
Settled: every settled market of the word: said / listed
Probability: the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Appearances and settled record

latest 2

Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.

Recent appearances and how their listed words settled
Date	Appearance	Text	Words	Settled	Our count agreed
Apr 21, 2026	EpisodeWhat will OpenAI say during their livestream?	no transcript	14	3 yes · 11 no	–
Aug 7, 2025	EpisodeWhat will be said during OpenAI livestream on August 7?	no transcript	13	5 yes · 8 no	–

Citeparrot.markets, “OpenAI: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/openai (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/openai · words: /api/v1/history?entity=openai · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP