Will NASA say “Weather”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, NASA said “Weather” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

71%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes yes yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nasa&word=weather

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

NASA

Weather

Probability
71% · n=14
Settled
7/14 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for NASA yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will NASA say during their press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will NASA say during the Artemis III Announcement? · settled yes

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What will the Artemis II Astronauts say during their press conference? · settled no

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What will NASA say during the Post-splashdown news conference? · settled no

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What will NASA say during the Artemis II press conference? · settled yes

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What will NASA say during the Artemis II press conference? · settled yes

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What will NASA say during the Artemis II news conference? · settled yes

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What will NASA say during the Artemis II News Conference? · settled no

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What will NASA say during the ARTEMIS II Press Conference? · settled yes

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What will NASA say during the ARTEMIS II Press Conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jun 9, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Apr 16, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Apr 10, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Apr 9, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Apr 7, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Apr 5, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Apr 4, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Apr 3, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Mar 31, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Mar 30, 2026WeatherKalshiYes
Mar 12, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Feb 21, 2026WeatherKalshiNo
Feb 4, 2026WeatherKalshiNo

Questions

How often does NASA say “Weather”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, NASA said “Weather” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 9, 2026.
What is the probability NASA says “Weather” next time?
71%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “NASA: ‘Weather’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/nasa/words/weather (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nasa&word=weather · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nasa&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP