Mark Zuckerberg
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 41 word markets on Mark Zuckerberg’s appearances since 2025, on 36 different words.
History Wall
1–36 of 36, most settled first| Word | Sep 17 ’25episode | Sep 23 ’26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 9 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 79%n=2 from settlement history |
| Metaverse | Not said: Metaverse, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 2 times: Metaverse, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | 73%n=2 from settlement history |
| Privacy | Not said: Privacy, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 2 times: Privacy, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | 73%n=2 from settlement history |
| Llama | Not said: Llama, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 0 times: Llama, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 18%n=2 from settlement history |
| Open Source | Not said: Open Source, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 0 times: Open Source, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 18%n=2 from settlement history |
| Agent / Agentic | Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 6 times: Agent / Agentic, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America / American | Said: America / American, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: America / American, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Glasses | Said: Glasses, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Glasses, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Muse | Not listed: Muse, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 33 times: Muse, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oakley | Not listed: Oakley, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 1 time: Oakley, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Quest | Not listed: Quest, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 1 time: Quest, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ray-Ban | Not listed: Ray-Ban, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 5 times: Ray-Ban, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | Not listed: Superintelligence / Super Intelligence, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 6 times: Superintelligence / Super Intelligence, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| VR / Virtual Reality | Not listed: VR / Virtual Reality, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 6 times: VR / Virtual Reality, Sep 23 ’26 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| a16z / Andreessen | Not said: a16z / Andreessen, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: a16z / Andreessen, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Alexander / Wang | Not said: Alexander / Wang, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Alexander / Wang, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anduril | Not said: Anduril, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Anduril, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Based | Not said: Based, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Based, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ChatGPT | Not said: ChatGPT, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Not listed: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 0 times: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Not said: China, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon / Musk | Not said: Elon / Musk, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gemini | Not said: Gemini, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Gemini, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Horizon | Not listed: Horizon, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 0 times: Horizon, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Palmer / Luckey | Not said: Palmer / Luckey, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Palmer / Luckey, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| NFT | Not said: NFT, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: NFT, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nuclear | Not said: Nuclear, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oculus | Not said: Oculus, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Oculus, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Prada | Not listed: Prada, Sep 17 ’25 episode | 0 times: Prada, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Smoke / Smoker | Not said: Smoke / Smoker, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Smoke / Smoker, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Talent | Not said: Talent, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Talent, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Threads | Not said: Threads, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Threads, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| TikTok | Not said: TikTok, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: TikTok, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not said: Trump, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| UFC | Not said: UFC, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: UFC, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Winklevoss | Not said: Winklevoss, Sep 17 ’25 episode | Not listed: Winklevoss, Sep 23 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 15 of 15 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Mark Zuckerberg say during Meta Connect keynote? | Captions · machine-attributed | 16 | 10 yes · 6 no | 15/15 (100%) |
| Sep 17, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Zuck say during the TBPN Podcast? | no transcript | 26 | 3 yes · 23 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Mark Zuckerberg: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/mark-zuckerberg (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/mark-zuckerberg · words: /api/v1/history?entity=mark-zuckerberg · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP