Brian Armstrong
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 42 word markets on Brian Armstrong’s appearances since 2025, on 25 different words.
History Wall
1–28 of 28, most settled first| Word | Feb 18 ’25episode | Dec 4keynote | Dec 17latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Not listed: Bitcoin, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Said: Bitcoin, Dec 4 keynote | 1 time: Bitcoin, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 72%n=2 from settlement history |
| Prediction Market | Not listed: Prediction Market, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Said: Prediction Market, Dec 4 keynote | 2 times: Prediction Market, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 72%n=2 from settlement history |
| Delaware | Not listed: Delaware, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Said: Delaware, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Delaware, Dec 17 keynote | 1/250% | 1/250% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Ethereum | Not listed: Ethereum, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Ethereum, Dec 4 keynote | 2 times: Ethereum, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Acquisition | Not listed: Acquisition, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Acquisition, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Acquisition, Dec 17 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2 from settlement history |
| Doge / Dogecoin | Not listed: Doge / Dogecoin, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Doge / Dogecoin, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Doge / Dogecoin, Dec 17 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2 from settlement history |
| Perpetual Futures / Perp | Not listed: Perpetual Futures / Perp, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Perpetual Futures / Perp, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Perpetual Futures / Perp, Dec 17 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tokenized Equity | Not listed: Tokenized Equity, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Tokenized Equity, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Tokenized Equity, Dec 17 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2 from settlement history |
| Base | Said: Base, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Base, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Base, Dec 17 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ethereum2+ times | Not listed: Ethereum 2+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ethereum 2+ times, Dec 4 keynote | 2 times: Ethereum 2+ times, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stablecoin2+ times | Not listed: Stablecoin 2+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Stablecoin 2+ times, Dec 4 keynote | 2 times: Stablecoin 2+ times, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Token Sale | Not listed: Token Sale, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Token Sale, Dec 4 keynote | 1 time: Token Sale, Dec 17 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | Not said: AI/Artificial Intelligence, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: AI/Artificial Intelligence, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: AI/Artificial Intelligence, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Base Token | Not listed: Base Token, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Base Token, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Base Token, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin20+ times | Not said: Bitcoin 20+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Bitcoin 20+ times, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Bitcoin 20+ times, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Blockchain | Not listed: Blockchain, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Blockchain, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Blockchain, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| BVNK | Not listed: BVNK, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: BVNK, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: BVNK, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cobie | Not listed: Cobie, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Cobie, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Cobie, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto/Cryptocurrency50+ times | Not said: Crypto/Cryptocurrency 50+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Crypto/Cryptocurrency 50+ times, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Crypto/Cryptocurrency 50+ times, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Echo | Not listed: Echo, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Echo, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Echo, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Inflation, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Memecoin | Not listed: Memecoin, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Memecoin, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Memecoin, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Milady | Not said: Milady, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Milady, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Milady, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Solana | Not listed: Solana, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Solana, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Solana, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Solana DEX / Solana Decentralized Exchange | Not listed: Solana DEX / Solana Decentralized Exchange, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Solana DEX / Solana Decentralized Exchange, Dec 4 keynote | 0 times: Solana DEX / Solana Decentralized Exchange, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Solana5+ times | Not said: Solana 5+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Solana 5+ times, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Solana 5+ times, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump5+ times | Not said: Trump 5+ times, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Wallet | Not listed: Wallet, Feb 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Wallet, Dec 4 keynote | Not listed: Wallet, Dec 17 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Our transcript counts matched how 23 of 23 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Brian Armstrong say during Coinbase's product showcase? | Captions · machine-attributed | 23 | 9 yes · 14 no | 23/23 (100%) |
| Dec 4, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Brian Armstrong say during the NYT DealBook Summit? | no transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Brian Armstrong say during X space? | no transcript | 7 | 1 yes · 6 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Brian Armstrong: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/brian-armstrong (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/brian-armstrong · words: /api/v1/history?entity=brian-armstrong · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP