Elon Musk: Posts, week ending Oct 18, 2026
In the week ending Oct 18, 2026, Elon Musk posted 4 of the 9 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
9 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink | Yes | ≈86 | 88 | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | ≈69 | 72 | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | Yes | ≈50 | 51 | 94%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | ≈6 | 6 | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| India | No | ≈12 | 12 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border / Borders | No | ≈5 | 5 | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | ≈1 | 1 | 4%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | ≈1 | 1 | 2%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | ≈0 | 0 | 2%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownPosts by @elonmusk on X, via Polymarket's XTracker (reposts included: counts are approximate) · The posts
Counted from 359 posts by @elonmusk, Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. XTracker does not flag reposts or quotes, so other accounts' text is included: these counts are approximate. Post text is used for counting only and is not reproduced here.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2026-10-18:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2026-10-18:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP