Lisa Su
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 25 word markets on Lisa Su’s appearances since 2026, on 22 different words.
History Wall
1–22 of 22, most settled first| Word | May 28keynote | Jul 23latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | 0 times: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, May 28 keynote | 1 time: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Jul 23 episode, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| TSMC / Taiwan | 1 time: TSMC / Taiwan, May 28 keynote, counts as said | 0 times: TSMC / Taiwan, Jul 23 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Data Center | 0 times: Data Center, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Data Center, Jul 23 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 6 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 28 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 23 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anthropic / Claude | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, May 28 keynote | 5 times: Anthropic / Claude, Jul 23 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Not listed: OpenAI / ChatGPT, May 28 keynote | 1 time: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Jul 23 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Semiconductor / Chip | 2 times: Semiconductor / Chip, May 28 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Semiconductor / Chip, Jul 23 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| PhD / Doctorate | 1 time: PhD / Doctorate, May 28 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: PhD / Doctorate, Jul 23 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Helios | Not listed: Helios, May 28 keynote | 2 times: Helios, Jul 23 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| IBM | 2 times: IBM, May 28 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: IBM, Jul 23 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Mind and Hand | 1 time: Mind and Hand, May 28 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Mind and Hand, Jul 23 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Accelerator | Not listed: Accelerator, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Accelerator, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Claude / ChatGPT | 0 times: Claude / ChatGPT, May 28 keynote | Not listed: Claude / ChatGPT, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | 0 times: China / Chinese, May 28 keynote | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Google / Gemini | Not listed: Google / Gemini, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Google / Gemini, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Hugging Face | Not listed: Hugging Face, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Hugging Face, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Innovative / Innovation | 0 times: Innovative / Innovation, May 28 keynote | Not listed: Innovative / Innovation, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Intel | Not listed: Intel, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Intel, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Nvidia / Jensen | 0 times: Nvidia / Jensen, May 28 keynote | Not listed: Nvidia / Jensen, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nvidia | Not listed: Nvidia, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Nvidia, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Open Source | 0 times: Open Source, May 28 keynote | Not listed: Open Source, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, May 28 keynote | 0 times: Trump, Jul 23 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 13 of 13 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Lisa Su say during the TBPN Podcast? | Speaker-labelled captions | 13 | 4 yes · 9 no | 12/12 (100%) |
| May 28, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Lisa Su say during her MIT Commencement Speech? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 6 yes · 8 no | 13/13 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Lisa Su: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/lisa-su (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/lisa-su · words: /api/v1/history?entity=lisa-su · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP