Will Vlad Tenev say “Blockchain”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Blockchain” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 5% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 keynotes we have transcripts for (Dec 17, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
5%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Blockchain
- Probability
- 5% · n=6
- Settled
- 0/6 (0%)
- Last 3 keynotes
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Blockchain |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Blockchain | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Blockchain | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Blockchain | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Blockchain | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Blockchain | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Blockchain”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Blockchain” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Blockchain” next time?
- 5%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Blockchain’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/blockchain (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=blockchain · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP