John Ternus
As of Oct 24, 2026, Polymarket has settled 36 word markets on John Ternus’ appearances since 2026, on 35 different words.
History Wall
1–36 of 36, most settled first| Word | Jun 8keynote | Sep 9latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AirPods Pro | Not listed: AirPods Pro, Jun 8 keynote | 1 time: AirPods Pro, Sep 9 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Aluminum | Not listed: Aluminum, Jun 8 keynote | 1 time: Aluminum, Sep 9 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Apple Intelligence | Not listed: Apple Intelligence, Jun 8 keynote | 4 times: Apple Intelligence, Sep 9 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable | Not listed: Afford / Affordable, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Afford / Affordable, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AirTag | Not listed: AirTag, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: AirTag, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence10+ times | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Jun 8 keynote | 4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 9 keynote, below the threshold | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence20+ times | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Amazing | Settled no: Amazing, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Amazing, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Apple TV | Not listed: Apple TV, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Apple TV, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Battery Life3+ times | Not listed: Battery Life 3+ times, Jun 8 keynote | 2 times: Battery Life 3+ times, Sep 9 keynote, below the threshold | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Million / Billion / Trillion10+ times | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ChatGPT | Settled no: ChatGPT, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: ChatGPT, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cheaper | Settled no: Cheaper, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Cheaper, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Chip | Not listed: Chip, Jun 8 keynote | 2 times: Chip, Sep 9 keynote, counts as said (our count 2 · the market settled no) | 1/1100% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Developer | Settled no: Developer, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Developer, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Excited | Settled no: Excited, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Excited, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Flexible | Not listed: Flexible, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Flexible, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fluid | Settled no: Fluid, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Fluid, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable10+ times | Not listed: Fold / Folding / Foldable 10+ times, Jun 8 keynote | 3 times: Fold / Folding / Foldable 10+ times, Sep 9 keynote, below the threshold | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gemini | Settled no: Gemini, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Gemini, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Glow | Settled no: Glow, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Glow, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Settled no: Google, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Google, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | |
| Hardware | Not listed: Hardware, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Hardware, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| M5 | Settled no: M5, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: M5, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Macbook10+ times | Settled no: Macbook 10+ times, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Macbook 10+ times, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Microsoft | Settled no: Microsoft, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Microsoft, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| One More Thing3+ times | Not listed: One More Thing 3+ times, Jun 8 keynote | 1 time: One More Thing 3+ times, Sep 9 keynote, below the threshold | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Open Source | Settled no: Open Source, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Open Source, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Personal | Settled no: Personal, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Personal, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Powerful | Settled no: Powerful, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Powerful, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Privilege | Settled no: Privilege, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Privilege, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Siri | Settled no: Siri, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Siri, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Steve Jobs | Not listed: Steve Jobs, Jun 8 keynote | 0 times: Steve Jobs, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Streaming | Settled no: Streaming, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Streaming, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tool | Settled no: Tool, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Tool, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Update / Updated | Settled no: Update / Updated, Jun 8 keynote | Not listed: Update / Updated, Sep 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 14 of 15 settled words resolved (93.3%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote? | Captions · machine-attributed | 15 | 3 yes · 12 no | 14/15 (93%) |
| Jun 8, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will John Ternus say at Apple WWDC 2026 on June 8th? | Captions · machine-attributed | 21 | 0 yes · 21 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “John Ternus: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/john-ternus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/john-ternus · words: /api/v1/history?entity=john-ternus · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP