Alex Karp

Business · Tech leadersPersonHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 01:47 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 24 word markets on Alex Karp’s appearances since 2025, on 19 different words.

History Wall

1–19 of 19, most settled first

Alex Karp: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Dec 4 ’25keynote	Mar 12 ’26latest	Last 2	Settled	Probability
China	YSettled yes: China, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: China, Mar 12 ’26 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	67%n=2 from settlement history
Russia / Ukraine	YSettled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Russia / Ukraine, Mar 12 ’26 episode	1/250%	1/250%	23%n=2 from settlement history
Trump	NSettled no: Trump, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: Trump, Mar 12 ’26 episode	1/250%	1/250%	59%n=2 from settlement history
Drone	NSettled no: Drone, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Drone, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/20%	0/20%	15%n=2 from settlement history
National Security	NSettled no: National Security, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: National Security, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/20%	0/20%	15%n=2 from settlement history
Iran	–Not listed: Iran, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	YSettled yes: Iran, Mar 12 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Israel	YSettled yes: Israel, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Israel, Mar 12 ’26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Anthropic / Claude	–Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Anthropic / Claude, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Competition	NSettled no: Competition, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Competition, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Woke / DEI	–Not listed: Woke / DEI, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Woke / DEI, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / DHS	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: ICE / DHS, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Government Contract	NSettled no: Government Contract, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Government Contract, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Israel / Israeli	–Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Israel / Israeli, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Lethal	NSettled no: Lethal, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Lethal, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Nuclear	–Not listed: Nuclear, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Nuclear, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Nvidia	NSettled no: Nvidia, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Nvidia, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Surveillance	–Not listed: Surveillance, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	NSettled no: Surveillance, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Warp Speed	NSettled no: Warp Speed, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Warp Speed, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Woke	NSettled no: Woke, Dec 4 ’25 keynote	–Not listed: Woke, Mar 12 ’26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Alex Karp: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/alex-karp (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/alex-karp · words: /api/v1/history?entity=alex-karp · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP