Will Vlad Tenev say “Bitcoin”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Bitcoin” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 6% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 4 latest transcripts we have (3 keynotes, 1 episode), it reached the market's count 1 time.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Bitcoin
- Probability
- 6% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Bitcoin”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Bitcoin” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Bitcoin” next time?
- 6%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Bitcoin’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/bitcoin (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=bitcoin · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP