Will Elon Musk say “SpaceX”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “SpaceX” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (60%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 76% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
SpaceX
- Probability
- 76% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…uh to [clears throat] expand consciousness beyond Earth. So, if you take SpaceX, for example, that's SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | SpaceX |  Polymarket | Yes | ≈37 (settled yes · our count of 37 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | SpaceX | Polymarket | Yes | ≈69 (settled yes · our count of 69 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | SpaceX | Polymarket | Yes | ≈15 (settled yes · our count of 15 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| May 13, 2025 | SpaceX | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2025 | SpaceX | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “SpaceX”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “SpaceX” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (60%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “SpaceX” next time?
- 76%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘SpaceX’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/spacex (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=spacex · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP