Will Elon Musk say “Tesla”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Tesla” at 21 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (95%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 94% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Tesla
- Probability
- 94% · n=22
- Settled
- 21/22 (95%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Um Uh Te- Tesla is obviously about uh sustainable technology, and uh and and also at…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Tesla |  Polymarket | Yes | ≈25 (settled yes · our count of 25 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈50 (settled yes · our count of 50 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈39 (settled yes · our count of 39 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈22 (settled yes · our count of 22 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈31 (settled yes · our count of 31 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈22 (settled yes · our count of 22 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈37 (settled yes · our count of 37 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈38 (settled yes · our count of 38 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈9 (settled yes · our count of 9 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈4 (settled yes · our count of 4 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈11 (settled yes · our count of 11 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈10 (settled yes · our count of 10 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tesla |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈6 (settled yes · our count of 6 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈17 (settled yes · our count of 17 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈9 (settled yes · our count of 9 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈15 (settled yes · our count of 15 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈15 (settled yes · our count of 15 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | ≈11 (settled yes · our count of 11 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Tesla | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Tesla | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Tesla”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Tesla” at 21 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (95%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Tesla” next time?
- 94%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Tesla’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/tesla (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=tesla · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP