SpaceX (SPCX)
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 79 word markets on SpaceX’s earnings calls and other events since 2026, on 36 different words. Next call: Jan 26, 2027 (22 words listed).
Next: Earnings call ·
22 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi| Word | Q2’26Aug '26 | Q3’26last call | Trend | Last 2 | Scripted | All-time | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starship | 23 times: Starship, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 26 times: Starship, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Starlink | 51 times: Starlink, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 39 times: Starlink, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Grok | 16 times: Grok, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 16 times: Grok, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Cursor | 5 times: Cursor, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 7 times: Cursor, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Moon | 8 times: Moon, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 1 time: Moon, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 1/250% | 2/2100% | 86%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinese | 2 times: China / Chinese, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 1 time: China / Chinese, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 1/250% | 2/2100% | 80%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Starmind | 1 time: Starmind, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 2 times: Starmind, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 79%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Starbase | 2 times: Starbase, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 2 times: Starbase, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 77%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Tesla | 1 time: Tesla, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 3 times: Tesla, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 0/20% | 2/2100% | 77%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Starshield | 0 times: Starshield, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 4 times: Starshield, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Artemis | 1 time: Artemis, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 1 time: Artemis, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 1/250% | 2/2100% | 69%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| NVIDIA | 4 times: NVIDIA, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: NVIDIA, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 59%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Data Center | 5 times: Data Center, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: Data Center, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 57%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| NASA | 0 times: NASA, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 2 times: NASA, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 55%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | 3 times: Anthropic / OpenAI, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: Anthropic / OpenAI, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 54%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Combine / Combining | 0 times: Combine / Combining, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 1 time: Combine / Combining, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 49%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| ISS / International Space Station | 0 times: ISS / International Space Station, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 1 time: ISS / International Space Station, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Colossus | 2 times: Colossus, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: Colossus, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 47¢ Kalshi |
| Merge / Merger | 0 times: Merge / Merger, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 1 time: Merge / Merger, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| T-Mobile | 1 time: T-Mobile, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: T-Mobile, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 29%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Trump | 0 times: Trump, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Trump, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 13%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Mars | 0 times: Mars, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Mars, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 13%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
- times said on that call
- counted as said (ring)
- no call
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Trend
- how the count moved over these calls
- Scripted
- calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
- All-time
- every call on file
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 22:11 UTC.
Every word
1–17 of 17, most settled first| Word | Q2’26Aug '26 | Q3’26last call | Trend | Last 2 | Scripted | All-time | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlock / Lock Up | 0 times: Unlock / Lock Up, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Unlock / Lock Up, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Data Center5+ times | 5 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 36%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Elon / Musk | 9 times: Elon / Musk, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 8 times: Elon / Musk, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 71%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Elon / Musk3+ times | 14 times: Elon / Musk 3+ times, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 10 times: Elon / Musk 3+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| IPO | 3 times: IPO, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: IPO, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Launch10+ times | 16 times: Launch 10+ times, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 27 times: Launch 10+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 78%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Moon3+ times | 8 times: Moon 3+ times, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 1 time: Moon 3+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, below the threshold | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 58%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| xAI | 0 times: xAI, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: xAI, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 71%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Merge / Merger / Combine | 0 times: Merge / Merger / Combine, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 1 time: Merge / Merger / Combine, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 0/20% | 1/250% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Fuel3+ times | 0 times: Fuel 3+ times, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Fuel 3+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 7%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| ISS | 0 times: ISS, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: ISS, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Lockup / Unlock | 0 times: Lockup / Unlock, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Lockup / Unlock, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Louisiana | 0 times: Louisiana, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 8 times: Louisiana, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle | 0 times: MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 15%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Trump / President | 0 times: Trump / President, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Trump / President, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Space Force | 1 time: Space Force, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | 0 times: Space Force, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 1/250% | 1/250% | 1/250% | 19%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Weather | 0 times: Weather, Q2’26 Aug '26 | 0 times: Weather, Q3’26 Oct '26 | not enough history | 0/20% | 0/20% | 0/20% | 15%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
- times said on that call
- counted as said (ring)
- no call
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Trend
- how the count moved over these calls
- Scripted
- calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
- All-time
- every call on file
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 57 of 58 settled words resolved (98.3%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Earnings call FY26 Q3 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 22 | 14 yes · 8 no | 22/22 (100%) |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Earnings call FY26 Q2 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 36 | 21 yes · 15 no | 35/36 (97%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “SpaceX (SPCX): earnings call word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SPCX (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/spacex · words: /api/v1/history?entity=spacex · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP