Sam Altman
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 115 word markets on Sam Altman’s appearances since 2025, on 73 different words. Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 (17 words listed).
Next: Keynote ·
17 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Oct 10 ’25episode | Dec 9episode | Sep 29 ’26latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Source | Not listed: Open Source, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Open Source, Dec 9 episode | Settled yes: Open Source, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Not listed: Safe / Safer / Safety, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Safe / Safer / Safety, Dec 9 episode | Settled yes: Safe / Safer / Safety, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 81¢ Kalshi |
| Valuation / IPO | Not listed: Valuation / IPO, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Valuation / IPO, Dec 9 episode | Settled yes: Valuation / IPO, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 38¢ Kalshi |
| AGI | 0 times: AGI, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Settled no: AGI, Dec 9 episode | Settled yes: AGI, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 38%n=3 from settlement history | 54¢ Kalshi |
| Google / Gemini | 0 times: Google / Gemini, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Google / Gemini, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Google / Gemini, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 27%n=3 from settlement history | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Hugging Facenew | Not listed: Hugging Face, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Hugging Face, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Hugging Face, Sep 29 ’26 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Regulation / Regulate / Regulatorynew | Not listed: Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory, Sep 29 ’26 interview | – | – | 26%n=3 from settlement history | 62¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/10% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Compute | 4 times: Compute, Oct 10 ’25 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Compute, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Compute, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 24%n=3 from settlement history | 62¢ Kalshi |
| IP / Intellectual Property | 1 time: IP / Intellectual Property, Oct 10 ’25 episode, counts as said | Settled no: IP / Intellectual Property, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: IP / Intellectual Property, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 24%n=3 from settlement history | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Astra | Not listed: Astra, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Astra, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Astra, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 65¢ Kalshi |
| Elon / Grok | Not listed: Elon / Grok, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Elon / Grok, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Elon / Grok, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 32¢ Kalshi |
| Data Center | Not listed: Data Center, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Data Center, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Data Center, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/10% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 36¢ Kalshi |
| Anthropic / Claude | 0 times: Anthropic / Claude, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/20% | 0/30% | 18%n=2 from settlement history | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Nvidia | 0 times: Nvidia, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Settled no: Nvidia, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Nvidia, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | 17%n=3 from settlement history | 32¢ Kalshi |
| Nuclearnever said | 0 times: Nuclear, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Settled no: Nuclear, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Nuclear, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/30% | 0/40% | 17%n=3 from settlement history | 19¢ Kalshi |
| Privacy | 0 times: Privacy, Oct 10 ’25 episode | Settled no: Privacy, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Privacy, Sep 29 ’26 interview | 0/20% | 0/30% | 14%n=3 from settlement history | 42¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 62, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Jul 22 ’25keynote | Oct 10episode | Dec 8episode | Dec 9episode | Jul 9 ’26episode | Sep 29latest | Last 6 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | 1 time: Regulation, Jul 22 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 0 times: Regulation, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Regulation, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: Regulation, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Regulation, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Regulation, Sep 29 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 15%n=3 from settlement history |
| Sora | Not listed: Sora, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 3 times: Sora, Oct 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Sora, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: Sora, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Sora, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Settled no: Sora, Sep 29 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 15%n=3 from settlement history |
| China | 0 times: China, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: China, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: China, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: China, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: China, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 29 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | 10%n=3 from settlement history |
| Elon / Musk | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Elon / Musk, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Sep 29 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Meme | Not listed: Meme, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Meme, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Meme, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: Meme, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Meme, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Meme, Sep 29 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | 9%n=3 from settlement history |
| ChatGPT | 2 times: ChatGPT, Jul 22 ’25 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: ChatGPT, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Settled no: ChatGPT, Sep 29 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 16%n=2 from settlement history |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 29 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| DeepSeek | 0 times: DeepSeek, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: DeepSeek, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: DeepSeek, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: DeepSeek, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: DeepSeek, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: DeepSeek, Sep 29 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 14%n=2 from settlement history |
| Elon | Not listed: Elon, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Elon, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Elon, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: Elon, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Elon, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Elon, Sep 29 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 10%n=2 from settlement history |
| Stargate | 0 times: Stargate, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Stargate, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Stargate, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Stargate, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Stargate, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Stargate, Sep 29 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Trump, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Trump, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Trump, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Trump, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 29 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Polymarket / Bet | Not listed: Polymarket / Bet, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Polymarket / Bet, Oct 10 episode | Settled yes: Polymarket / Bet, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Polymarket / Bet, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Polymarket / Bet, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Polymarket / Bet, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cybersecurity | 1 time: Cybersecurity, Jul 22 ’25 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Cybersecurity, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Cybersecurity, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Cybersecurity, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Cybersecurity, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Cybersecurity, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud | 3 times: Fraud, Jul 22 ’25 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| GPT7+ times | Not listed: GPT 7+ times, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 7 times: GPT 7+ times, Oct 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: GPT 7+ times, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: GPT 7+ times, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: GPT 7+ times, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: GPT 7+ times, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Risk | 7 times: Risk, Jul 22 ’25 keynote, counts as said | Not listed: Risk, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Risk, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Risk, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Risk, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Risk, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Video | Not listed: Video, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 11 times: Video, Oct 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Video, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Video, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Video, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Video, Sep 29 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 5.2 / GPT-5.2 | Not listed: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: 5.2 / GPT-5.2, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Agent | Not listed: Agent, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Agent, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Agent, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Agent, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Agent, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Agent, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| API / AGI | Not listed: API / AGI, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: API / AGI, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: API / AGI, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: API / AGI, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: API / AGI, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: API / AGI, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Artificial General Intelligence / AGI | 0 times: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Artificial General Intelligence / AGI, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AMD | Not listed: AMD, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: AMD, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: AMD, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: AMD, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: AMD, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: AMD, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Creativity / Artist | Not listed: Creativity / Artist, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Creativity / Artist, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Creativity / Artist, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Creativity / Artist, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Creativity / Artist, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Creativity / Artist, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Browser | Not listed: Browser, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Browser, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Browser, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Browser, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Browser, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Browser, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Nvidia / Bubble | Not listed: Nvidia / Bubble, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Nvidia / Bubble, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Nvidia / Bubble, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Nvidia / Bubble, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Nvidia / Bubble, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Nvidia / Bubble, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Capital | 0 times: Capital, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Capital, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Capital, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Capital, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Capital, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Capital, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Car / Tesla | Not listed: Car / Tesla, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Car / Tesla, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Car / Tesla, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Car / Tesla, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Car / Tesla, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Car / Tesla, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ChatGPT10+ times | Not listed: ChatGPT 10+ times, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: ChatGPT 10+ times, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: ChatGPT 10+ times, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT 10+ times, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT 10+ times, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: ChatGPT 10+ times, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Claude / Gemini / Grok | Not listed: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Claude / Gemini / Grok, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Code Red | Not listed: Code Red, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Code Red, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Code Red, Dec 8 episode | Settled no: Code Red, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Code Red, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Code Red, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Codex | Not listed: Codex, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Codex, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Codex, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Codex, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Codex, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Codex, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Competition | 0 times: Competition, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Competition, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Competition, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Competition, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Competition, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Competition, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Compliance | 0 times: Compliance, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Compliance, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Compliance, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Compliance, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Compliance, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Compliance, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Copyright / DMCA | Not listed: Copyright / DMCA, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | 0 times: Copyright / DMCA, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Copyright / DMCA, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Copyright / DMCA, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Copyright / DMCA, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Copyright / DMCA, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Security / Cybersecurity | Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Security / Cybersecurity, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Security / Cybersecurity, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Deep Fake | Not listed: Deep Fake, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Deep Fake, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Deep Fake, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Deep Fake, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Deep Fake, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Deep Fake, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy | 0 times: Democracy, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Democracy, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Efficiency | 0 times: Efficiency, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Efficiency, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Efficiency, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Efficiency, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Efficiency, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Efficiency, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump / Election | Not listed: Trump / Election, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Trump / Election, Oct 10 episode | Settled no: Trump / Election, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Trump / Election, Dec 9 episode | Not listed: Trump / Election, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Trump / Election, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Grid / Energy | Not listed: Grid / Energy, Jul 22 ’25 keynote | Not listed: Grid / Energy, Oct 10 episode | Not listed: Grid / Energy, Dec 8 episode | Not listed: Grid / Energy, Dec 9 episode | Settled no: Grid / Energy, Jul 9 ’26 episode | Not listed: Grid / Energy, Sep 29 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 6Our transcript counts matched how 37 of 38 settled words resolved (97.4%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Sam Altman say during his CNBC interview? | no transcript | 17 | 4 yes · 13 no | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Sam Altman say during CNBC: Squawk on the Street? | no transcript | 16 | 1 yes · 15 no | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Sam Altman say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 15 | 1 yes · 14 no | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8? | no transcript | 16 | 1 yes · 15 no | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Sam Altman say during the TBPN Podcast? | Speaker-labelled captions | 34 | 5 yes · 28 no | 33/33 (100%) |
| Jul 22, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Sam Altman say during his Fireside chat at the Large Banks Conference? | Captions · machine-attributed | 20 | 5 yes · 15 no | 19/20 (95%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Sam Altman: mention market word history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/sam-altman · words: /api/v1/history?entity=sam-altman · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP