Will Elon Musk say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 2% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 2% · n=17
- Settled
- 0/17 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈0 (settled no · our count of 0 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈1 (settled no · our count of 1 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | No | ≈2 (settled no · our count of 2 includes reposts, so it is not graded) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Elon Musk did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 2%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP