Bill Ackman
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 31 word markets on Bill Ackman’s appearances since 2025, on 29 different words.
History Wall
1–30 of 30, most settled first| Word | Nov 18 ’25episode | Nov 19latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May I Meet You | Not said: May I Meet You, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: May I Meet You, Nov 19 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=2 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Said: Affordable / Affordability, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bailout | Not listed: Bailout, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Said: Bailout, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Million / Billion5+ times | Said: Million / Billion 5+ times, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Million / Billion 5+ times, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fannie20+ times | Said: Fannie 20+ times, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Fannie 20+ times, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| House / Housing | Said: House / Housing, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: House / Housing, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Private Market / Private Sector | Not listed: Private Market / Private Sector, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Said: Private Market / Private Sector, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pulte | Said: Pulte, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Pulte, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shareholder3+ times | Said: Shareholder 3+ times, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Shareholder 3+ times, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stupid | Said: Stupid, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Stupid, Nov 19 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 2008 / GFC | Not listed: 2008 / GFC, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: 2008 / GFC, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 50 Year | Not listed: 50 Year, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: 50 Year, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 50 Year Mortgage | Not said: 50 Year Mortgage, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: 50 Year Mortgage, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Affordable | Not said: Affordable, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Affordable, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Antisemitism | Not said: Antisemitism, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| BlackRock | Not said: BlackRock, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: BlackRock, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bubble | Not listed: Bubble, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Bubble, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| CEO | Not said: CEO, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: CEO, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Communist / Communism | Not said: Communist / Communism, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Demand | Not listed: Demand, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Demand, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not said: Election, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Election, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon / Musk / Twitter | Not said: Elon / Musk / Twitter, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Elon / Musk / Twitter, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inventory | Not listed: Inventory, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Inventory, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Not said: Zohran / Mamdani, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Zohran / Mamdani, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Minimum Credit | Not said: Minimum Credit, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Minimum Credit, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stock Market | Not listed: Stock Market, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Stock Market, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized | Not listed: Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not said: Trump, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump4+ times | Not said: Trump 4+ times, Nov 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Trump 4+ times, Nov 19 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Bill Ackman say during his talk on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac? | no transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Bill Ackman say during the X Space on November 18? | no transcript | 19 | 7 yes · 12 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Bill Ackman: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/bill-ackman (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/bill-ackman · words: /api/v1/history?entity=bill-ackman · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP