Satya Nadella
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 10 word markets on Satya Nadella’s appearances since 2025, on 10 different words. Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 (17 words listed).
Next: Keynote ·
17 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Oct 29 ’25latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copilot | 7 times: Copilot, Oct 29 ’25 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –new new word, no probability yet | 79¢ Kalshi |
| Agent / Agenticnew | Not listed: Agent / Agentic, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 82¢ Kalshi |
| AGInew | Not listed: AGI, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 35¢ Kalshi |
| Anthropic / Claudenew | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Azurenew | Not listed: Azure, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 34¢ Kalshi |
| Cloudnew | Not listed: Cloud, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 59¢ Kalshi |
| Computenew | Not listed: Compute, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 70¢ Kalshi |
| Containmentnew | Not listed: Containment, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Coworknew | Not listed: Cowork, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 35¢ Kalshi |
| Data Centernew | Not listed: Data Center, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 54¢ Kalshi |
| GitHubnew | Not listed: GitHub, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 38¢ Kalshi |
| Google / Gemininew | Not listed: Google / Gemini, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Nuclearnew | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 13¢ Kalshi |
| OpenAInew | Not listed: OpenAI, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 52¢ Kalshi |
| ROI / Return On Investmentnew | Not listed: ROI / Return On Investment, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Securitynew | Not listed: Security, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 58¢ Kalshi |
| Tokennew | Not listed: Token, Oct 29 ’25 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 48¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Every word
1–9 of 9, most settled first| Word | Oct 29 ’25latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | 0 times: ChatGPT, Oct 29 ’25 episode (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 0/10% | 1/1100% | – |
| Game / Gaming | 12 times: Game / Gaming, Oct 29 ’25 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Agentic AI | 0 times: Agentic AI, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Quantum | 0 times: Quantum, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Talent | 0 times: Talent, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tariff | 0 times: Tariff, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Teams | 0 times: Teams, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Trump | 0 times: Trump, Oct 29 ’25 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Satya Nadella say during the TBPN Podcast? | Speaker-labelled captions | 10 | 3 yes · 7 no | 9/10 (90%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Satya Nadella: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/satya-nadella (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/satya-nadella · words: /api/v1/history?entity=satya-nadella · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP