Bill Gates

Business · Tech leadersPersonMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 22:21 UTC

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 24 word markets on Bill Gates’ appearances since 2026, on 19 different words.

History Wall

1–19 of 19, most settled first

Bill Gates: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Sep 21interview	Sep 27latest	Last 2	Settled	Probability
AI / Artificial Intelligence	YSaid: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 21 interview	7 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 27 episode, counts as said	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Billionaire	NNot said: Billionaire, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Billionaire, Sep 27 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Climate	NNot said: Climate, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Climate, Sep 27 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump	NNot said: Trump, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Trump, Sep 27 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Vaccine / Vaccination	NNot said: Vaccine / Vaccination, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Vaccine / Vaccination, Sep 27 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Job / Employment / Unemployment	YSaid: Job / Employment / Unemployment, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Job / Employment / Unemployment, Sep 27 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Farmer / Farming	YSaid: Farmer / Farming, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Farmer / Farming, Sep 27 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Nuclear	–Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 21 interview	3 times: Nuclear, Sep 27 episode, counts as said	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
HIV / AIDS	–Not listed: HIV / AIDS, Sep 21 interview	0 times: HIV / AIDS, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Anthropic / Claude	NNot said: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
OpenAI / Anthropic	–Not listed: OpenAI / Anthropic, Sep 21 interview	0 times: OpenAI / Anthropic, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
OpenAI / ChatGPT	NNot said: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Elon / Musk	–Not listed: Elon / Musk, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Elon / Musk, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Epstein	–Not listed: Epstein, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Epstein, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Equality / Inequality	NNot said: Equality / Inequality, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Equality / Inequality, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Foreign Aid / USAID	–Not listed: Foreign Aid / USAID, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Foreign Aid / USAID, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Inflation / Inflationary	NNot said: Inflation / Inflationary, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Inflation / Inflationary, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Microsoft	–Not listed: Microsoft, Sep 21 interview	0 times: Microsoft, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Robot / Robotic / Robotics	NNot said: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Sep 21 interview	–Not listed: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Sep 27 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Bill Gates: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/bill-gates (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/bill-gates · words: /api/v1/history?entity=bill-gates · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP