Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Memphis Safety Roundtable?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Memphis Roundtable?
Markets
52 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 57%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 54%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border 7+ times | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Washington / DC | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | 46%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=178 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | Yes | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Hundred 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 15+ times | Yes | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 33%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 28%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 63%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 63%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 61%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 58%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 57%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 7+ times | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating / Obliterate | No | 50%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Rubio / Vance | No | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 8+ times | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 47%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 43%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 42%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 42%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 41%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Scam / Fraud 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fake news | No | 36%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid / Idiot | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 35%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 30%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | No | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 30%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 22%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=315 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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