Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Tennessee, Oct 10, 2026
At the rally on Oct 10, 2026, Donald Trump said 9 of the 18 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | Yes | 67%n=246 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 60%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Depression | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Korea | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cadillac | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alabama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 39%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Job 17+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helicopter | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Handsome | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clay | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gay | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 37%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 29%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 7%n=52 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-10:rally-tennessee · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-10:rally-tennessee · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP