Donald Trump: Press conference, Aug 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Press Conference After the Trump-Putin meeting?
Markets
30 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy | Yes | 35%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 32%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 66%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 64%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 55%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 53%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 43%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Missile | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | No | 35%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| *EVENT CANCELLED* | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe / European | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Withdraw / Withdrawal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donbas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Javelin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 33%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kiev / Kyiv | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crimea | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP