Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jan 25, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say this week (January 25)?
Coverage
1 known appearances1 of 1 known appearance transcribed Window: Jan 19, 2026 to Jan 25, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
20 words · 16 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 20- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobel | Yes | 8 | 10 | ✓ | 22%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 62%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Insane Asylum | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Boom / Booming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nasty | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sucker | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 68%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Television | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden's War | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Great Shape | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela On Steroids | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left Lunatic | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 26%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| Portugal / Portuguese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Detroit Economic Club | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Big To Rig | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Liberation Day | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-january-25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP