Donald Trump: Science Summit remarks, Oct 8, 2026
At the keynote on Oct 8, 2026, Donald Trump said 17 of the 35 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
35 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 69%n=202 from settlement history | – |
| Super Intelligence / Superintelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius | Yes | 57%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Quantum | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mars | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 53%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Frontier | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 50%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Genesis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million/Billion/Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 47%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Chip / Semiconductor | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | 45%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / SpaceX | Yes | 40%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=272 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 69%n=372 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 62%n=258 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 60%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Autonomous / Autonomy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 57%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 56%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | No | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Sacks | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 46%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 43%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 35%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 34%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=50 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 19, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-08:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-08:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP