Donald Trump: Posts window, May 17, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)
Coverage
0 known appearancesevery post in the window Window: May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOJ | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Game | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AG / Attorney General | Yes | – | 0 | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Court | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Table | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trust | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Black | Yes | – | 0 | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | – | 0 | 36%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | – | 0 | 57%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | – | 0 | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Football | No | – | 0 | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Baby | No | – | 0 | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Brazil | No | – | 0 | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Virus | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coal | No | – | 0 | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| No cards / All the cards | No | – | 0 | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | – | 0 | 33%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 32%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 17%n=361 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-post-this-week-may-11-may-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP