Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 31, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Albuquerque, NM rally?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 72%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | 70%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rig/Rigged | Yes | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Garbage | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American dream 3+ times | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hispanic 3+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Puerto Rico/Rican | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 15+ times | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Halloween | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Native American | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paper clip | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 27%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 4%n=39 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-albuquerque-nm-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP