Donald Trump: Remarks, Jul 4, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during his Independence Day remarks on July 4?
Markets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe / Biden | No | 63%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 54%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 49%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Trans / Transgender | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Dome | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi / Hitler | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Iran | No | 43%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 35+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| George Washington | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=100 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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