Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 20, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his speech at RGA on Feb 20, 2025?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Republican Governors Association appearance?
Markets
34 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Brian/Kemp | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Education | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greg/Gianforte | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kelly/Ayotte | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million/Billion 15+ times | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Condom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mandate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rocket | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gavin/Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Glenn/Youngkin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kay/Ivey | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lawfare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tate/Reeves | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 10+ times | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Engine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stupid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon 5+ times | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl/Fent | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin/Crypto | No | 13%n=58 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTRGA-25FEB20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP