Donald Trump: Interview, Jul 12, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during his Fox News Interview on July 12?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 44%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 39%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Border 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Faith | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Common Sense | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miracle / Miraculous | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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